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Episodes
Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s Global Economic & Markets Research team will cover off on the latest market and economic news and dive deep into the big issues impacting the Australian and global economy. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice.
Episodes
Sunday Aug 04, 2024
Sunday Aug 04, 2024
Finally the Q2 24 CPI printed last week. A softer than expected CPI print removed the chance of a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in August. Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu wrap up the data as well as preview the RBA meeting which should be a low key affair. We stick to our base case that an easing cycle can commence in November 2024.
------ DISCLAIMER ------
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Monday Jul 29, 2024
Monday Jul 29, 2024
This week Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the three major central bank meetings this week, that could influence the Australian dollar. They also discuss the upcoming Australian CPI, which is widely regarded to make or break the case for an Reserve Bank of Australian interest rate hike next week.
Disclaimer:
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Monday Jul 29, 2024
Monday Jul 29, 2024
The long awaited Q2 24 CPI will be out Wednesday this week. How inflation prints will make or break the case for the RBA to increase interest rates at the August Board Meeting. In this podcast, Senior Economist Belinda Allen and Economist Harry Ottley chat through why the CBA house view remains that a further interest rate rise will not be required but remains a clear risk. They also discuss the June retail trade figures due out this week, with soft print expected as consumers remain under pressure.
------ DISCLAIMER ------
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Monday Jul 22, 2024
Monday Jul 22, 2024
This week Joseph Capurso and John Oh sit down to discuss a range of economic data and political events that could influence the Australian dollar. They discuss the recent announcement of President Biden stepping down from the elections, upcoming data releases in the US and Europe.
Disclaimer:
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Monday Jul 22, 2024
Monday Jul 22, 2024
In this podcast, Economists Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley discuss last week’s June labour force survey and March quarter building activity data. Despite rising unemployment, the labour force report does not stand in the way of a rate hike of the Q2 24 inflation data is sufficiently strong. Current and future residential building activity remains constrained by various forces, with improved outcomes not likely until 2025.
------ DISCLAIMER ------
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Monday Jul 15, 2024
Monday Jul 15, 2024
This week Carol Kong and Joseph Capurso sit down to discuss a range of economic data and political events that could influence the Australian dollar. They discuss the assassination attempt on President Trump, the Third Plenum in China, New Zealand and the UK CPIs.
Disclaimer:
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Monday Jul 15, 2024
Monday Jul 15, 2024
Last week was quiet with three private sector surveys on the soft side and the release of the CommBank Household Spending Insights data for June. Harry Ottley, Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist talk through this data as well as preview the all important June labour market data this week. The outcome of the labour market data could have implications for our Reserve Bank of Australia view. Harry also runs through a recent research report on how the non-market sector has driven outcomes in employment over the past period.
------ DISCLAIMER ------
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available ABS, CoreLogic and RBA data. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Bank’s Privacy Policy. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Thursday Jul 11, 2024
Thursday Jul 11, 2024
The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) rose by 0.6%/mth in June with the gains driven by Recreation, Hospitality and Food & beverage goods. Only partly offsetting these gains were falls in Transport, Education, Household goods and Utilities. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into details as well as the weakness in spending by renters who are significantly underperforming those with a mortgage and those that own their home outright.
------ DISCLAIMER ------
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available ABS, CoreLogic and RBA data. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Bank’s Privacy Policy. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Monday Jul 08, 2024
Monday Jul 08, 2024
Carol Kong (Economist and FX strategist) and Kristina Clifton (Senior international economist and FX strategist) discuss the outcome of the French parliamentary election and implications for EUR/USD. They preview the US June CPI and FOMC Chair Jay Powell’s testimony which will likely be the main drivers of currencies this week. They also run through a few reasons for why they expect further upside in AUD/USD in the coming year.
Disclaimer:
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided, or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Monday Jul 08, 2024
Monday Jul 08, 2024
On this weeks podcast, Harry Ottley (Economist) and Belinda Allen (Senior Economist) discuss last week’s RBA minutes and retail trade numbers. They also outline our updated home price forecasts and preview a quieter week ahead.
------ DISCLAIMER ------
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.