CommBank Global Economic & Markets Update podcast
Household Spending Intentions – December 2021

Household Spending Intentions – December 2021

January 20, 2022

The CommBank Household Spending Intentions index rose by 2.5% rise in December to 115.0. This was the highest level since July 2017. Kim Mundy, Senior International Economist talks to Belinda Allen, Senior Economist who details the main drivers of the lift in spending in December. A seasonal upswing in Retail spend as well as continued lift in Travel and Transport spend post the extended Delta lockdowns led to the strong gain.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Any reference to the term ‘CBA data’ means the proprietary data of the Bank. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Bank’s Privacy Policy. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

What does the Omicron surge mean for the Australian economy?

What does the Omicron surge mean for the Australian economy?

January 18, 2022

In our first podcast for 2022 our Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird and Senior Economist, Belinda Allen discuss the surge in COVID cases and what it means for the Australian economy. There will be short term disruption to both demand and supply due to the sheer number of people in isolation. Hours worked and spending will fall. But over the rest of 2022 we expect the unemployment rate to trend lower, inflation pressures to build and the case for higher interest rates to remain on track.

2022; Above and beyond

2022; Above and beyond

December 20, 2021

In our final podcast for 2021 Chief Economist, Stephen Halmarick and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist reflect on the key themes of 2021 and how these will evolve over 2022. COVID remains the key risk but for 2022 we expect climate change, inflation and central banks removing monetary policy accommodation and lifting interest rates will dominate the landscape locally and globally. Thank you to listening to our podcasts in 2021, we will return in January 2022. Have a wonderful holiday season.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Recent progress on biodiversity

Recent progress on biodiversity

December 17, 2021

The growing recognition of the interconnectedness between climate change and biodiversity loss has helped accelerate the biodiversity agenda in both part 1 of COP15 and COP26.  Carol Kong, Senior Associate Currency Strategy and International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the key biodiversity developments that arose from the two conferences.  Biodiversity will increasingly become an area of focus in the global policy and investor agenda in 2022 and beyond.  

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

2022 outlook for China

2022 outlook for China

December 14, 2021

The Chinese economy slowed in 2021 as regulator tightening was implemented and as structural reform and decarbonisation policies were explored. As we approach 2022 Kevin Xie, Senior Asia Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist explore the outlook for 2022 as policy makers balance pro-growth near-term policy setting against medium term goals. Kevin dives in to the outlook for COVID policy as well as regulatory reform, decarbonisation, fiscal and monetary policy and where the risks lie to 2022 growth.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Household Spending Intentions Nov 2021

Household Spending Intentions Nov 2021

December 7, 2021

The November edition of the CommBank Household Spending Intentions index rose by 2.1% in the month to reach 110.3, the strongest level since December 2019 and recouped gains lost during COVID lockdowns. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results in the latest podcast and break down the major rises and falls. The gains in the index were led by Transport, Travel, Retail and Household services while Home buying spending intentions retreated. A large amount of accumulated household savings will help propel consumer spending as we head into Christmas and 2022.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Any reference to the term ‘CBA data’ means the proprietary data of the Bank. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Bank’s Privacy Policy. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Q3 21 GDP falls less than expected

Q3 21 GDP falls less than expected

December 1, 2021

GDP fell as expected in Q3 21 but the fall was smaller than consensus. The 1.9% contraction was the third largest in history, driven by a fall in household consumption due to lockdowns in NSW, Vic and the ACT. Business investment, dwelling investment and net exports all added to growth, as did the government sector. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist run through the highlights particularly the divergence in state trends the continued accumulation of households savings, which is a large tailwind for consumption in 2022.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Dwelling prices to fall in 2023

Dwelling prices to fall in 2023

November 22, 2021

The Australian housing market has performed strongly in 2021.  Dwelling prices have risen by a little over 20% nationwide. However rising fixed rate mortgages, affordability constraints and a change by APRA to the serviceability buffer are expected to see dwelling price growth moderate over 2022.  Following an expected 7% increase in prices over 2022, we forecast an orderly fall of 10% in home prices over 2023 as the official cash rate is expected to rise from November 2022. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics runs through the forecasts and the importance of interest rates on the housing market in this podcast with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

COP26 – key takeaways

COP26 – key takeaways

November 15, 2021

The highly anticipated COP26 conference in Glasgow has concluded. In this podcast Kim Mundy, Senior Economist, International Economics & Currency Strategy and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, discuss the key takeaways from the conference. While new net zero pledges were made and a push to reduce global methane lifted, countries pledges still fall short of the Paris Agreement’s goals. One upside for emissions reductions though was a move towards uniform disclosure standards that should assist private financing to help fund the transition.  

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

 

Household Spending Intentions – October 2021

Household Spending Intentions – October 2021

November 9, 2021

Welcome to the podcast for the first edition of our new CommBank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) Index. In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the launch of the new HSI index and its enhancements through the addition of five new spending categories to compliment the seven already in place. This now means the HSI index tracks almost all types of household consumption. The index for October shows a 6.6% lift, driven by Travel, Transport and Household Services. Home Buying did fall as did the Motor Vehicle index.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Any reference to the term ‘CBA data’ means the proprietary data of the Bank. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Bank’s Privacy Policy. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

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