CommBank Global Economic & Markets Update podcast
The case for and against higher inflation in 2021

The case for and against higher inflation in 2021

January 21, 2021

The base case remains for low inflation in 2021 underpinned by soft wages growth, low inflation expectations and a firmer Australian Dollar. However large fiscal stimulus leading to strong income growth has raised the prospect of some demand pull inflation. In this podcast, Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics discuss the case for both low inflation and higher inflation over the coming year and what that means for the Reserve Bank of Australia and inflation forecasts.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

December edition of the Household Spending Intention (HSI) series

December edition of the Household Spending Intention (HSI) series

January 19, 2021

In our first podcast for 2021, Kim Mundy and Belinda Allen delve in to the December edition of the Household Spending Intention (HSI) series. The last edition for 2020 showed that at the end of last year there was a very welcome improvement in spending intentions for Travel, Health & Fitness, Entertainment and Motor Vehicles. Home Buying and Retail spending intentions were flat on the month, following strong gains in November, with Education spending intentions also tracking sideways. Early in 2021, a few of the major cities in Australia have had to implement some lockdowns and restrictions to jump on an uptick in Covid-19 infections. Some state border closures have been re-established and as a result Belinda also discusses the most recent weekly card spend report.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Household Spending Intentions – November 2020

Household Spending Intentions – November 2020

December 15, 2020

In our latest podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the November edition of the Household Spending Intentions report. The data showed a solid improvement in Home Buying and Retail spending intentions – as the Australian economy continues its recovery. Entertainment and Motor Vehicle spending intentions were both modestly higher in November.  Travel spending intentions were flat on the month, while Health & fitness and Education spending intentions both declined. As Stephen points out though there are reasons to be optimistic looking in to 2021 with consumer sentiment at a decade high, income growth remaining strong and savings levels elevated.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

State economic outlook and infrastructure pipeline

State economic outlook and infrastructure pipeline

December 10, 2020

The public sector infrastructure pipeline has risen significantly. This will help transition the Australian economy away from income support measures and contribute significantly to Australia’s economic growth in 2021. In this podcast Belinda Allen, Kristina Clifton and Nicolas Guesnon discuss the importance of infrastructure and then delve into how the various state economies are performing in 2020 and what we can expect in 2021.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Australia’s economic recovery begins

Australia’s economic recovery begins

December 2, 2020

Australia’s economic recovery commenced in Q3 20 with a lift in GDP of 3.3%/qtr. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the result and discuss the uneven nature of the various state economies as well as how household spending, business investment, residential construction and public spending impacted the result. Importantly the trends in place around consumption, income and savings suggest the recovery is on track and this is likely to have implications for RBA policy in 2021.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. 

What is next for America?

What is next for America?

November 26, 2020

It has been over three weeks since the US election and the official transition from President Trump to President-elect Biden is underway. The outlook for the US economy under a Biden Administration will largely depend on the makeup of the US Congress, which is still being decided. If the Republicans regain control of the Senate this will limit the amount of policy change for Biden. At this stage we expect Biden to focus on COVID-19, tax policy, infrastructure spend and climate change. Overall we expect an improving US economy with more predictability will be positive for the US and positive for the world economy.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Agriculture update – how soon is eventually?

Agriculture update – how soon is eventually?

November 23, 2020

In our quarterly update with Tobin Gorey, Ag Strategist we discuss how Covid-19 is still impacting particular commodities including cotton and sugar.   We also discuss how supply and demand fundamentals for agri-commodities are tracking for wheat, corn and oilseeds. Importantly, as Tobin discusses with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist this may foreshadow a Turf War in season 2021. Finally Tobin and Belinda discuss Australia-China trade tensions and what we need to watch for barley, wheat and wine.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

The Australian labour market

The Australian labour market

November 20, 2020

The October labour market data was a clear surprise to the upside. While we have a non-consensus optimistic view on the economic recovery in 2021 and the recovery in the labour market, even this data surprised us. In the podcast Belinda Allen, Kristina Clifton and Nicolas Guesnon discuss how the labour market is performing, what the outlook is and also whether the uneven downturn in the labour market will lead to an uneven recovery.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. 

October Household Spending Intentions report

October Household Spending Intentions report

November 17, 2020

In our latest podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the latest Household Spending Intentions report. The data shows mixed results across the main spending categories – as the effects of the Victorian shutdown lingered. Home buying, Retail and Travel spending intentions tracked sideways in October, while Entertainment spending intentions improved.  Health & fitness, Education and Motor vehicle spending intentions softened in October. As Stephen points out though there are reasons to be optimistic with fiscal and monetary easing expanded and as CBA credit & debit card spend data for November also showing a lift as restrictions are eased in Victoria.  

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

The Australian economic recovery will be strong

The Australian economic recovery will be strong

November 13, 2020

The Australian economic recovery looks set to be strong in 2021 and we upgrade our economic forecasts as a result. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen Senior Economist discuss the five green shoots underway in the Australian economy; the path of COVID-19, consumer sentiment, income support, the housing market and domestic tourism and what it means for the economy and the RBA.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. 

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