CommBank Global Economic & Markets Update podcast
Household Spending Intentions – June 2021

Household Spending Intentions – June 2021

July 20, 2021

The Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions series for June 2021 continued to be significantly affected by base effects when compared to June last year – with declines in spending intentions for Home buying, Retail, Travel, Entertainment and Motor vehicles.  Both Health & fitness and Education spending intentions were higher. In this podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the data, how it compares to both 2020 and 2019 and what the more up to date weekly card spend data is telling us.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Any reference to the term ‘CBA data’ means the proprietary data of the Bank. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Bank’s Privacy Policy. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

 

 

Lockdowns and the labour market

Lockdowns and the labour market

July 15, 2021

The Australian employment report for June was another strong print, with the unemployment rate falling to a decade low of 4.9%. But the near term economic outlook has shifted with Greater Sydney entering its fourth week of lockdown and another snap lockdown in Victoria.  In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss what the lockdown may mean for economic activity, the labour market and the RBA.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

RBA July policy decision

RBA July policy decision

July 7, 2021

The highly anticipated July policy decisions by the RBA did not disappoint.  In this podcast Gareth Aird. Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the two key decisions made by the RBA; sticking with the April 24 bond and tapering its bond purchase program as well as the modification of the forward guidance on the cash rate. The RBA remains dovish on the outlook for wages and inflation but despite this they have started the process of winding back some of the extraordinary monetary policy support given the expanding economy.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Outlook for the world economy and central bank implications

Outlook for the world economy and central bank implications

June 29, 2021

We have upgraded our views for global economic growth to 6.8% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022. In this podcast with Kim Mundy, Senior Economist & Currency Strategist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the upgrade and themes behind it including the vaccine roll out and a lift in the size of the government sector in driving the recovery. Financial markets have drawn a straight line from economic recovery to inflation and higher interest rates. Kim runs through the outlook for the major economies of US, Canada, China, Japan, Eurozone and the UK and what it means for the central bank in each country.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

RBA to raise the cash rate in November 2022

RBA to raise the cash rate in November 2022

June 23, 2021

The Australian labour market has tightened at a phenomenal pace and underutilisation in May was at its lowest since early 2013. The forward looking indicators of labour demand are very strong yet labour supply is constrained, which means the labour market will continue to tighten very quickly and wages growth will accelerate.  We expect the RBA to begin normalising monetary policy in late 2022 and see the cash rate target at 0.5% at end-2022 and then peaking at 1.25% by Q3 2023.  In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the change of call, the reasons why and the risks around it.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

A bumper labour market report

A bumper labour market report

June 17, 2021

The May labour market report was very strong on all accounts. Employment rose by 115k, the unemployment rate fell to 5.1% and the participation rate lifted. Underemployment fell further and suggests the labour market is tightening quickly. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the labour market report and the outlook for employment. Gareth also talks about a newer measure of the labour market which includes all workers in the Australian economy, including temporary workers, which indicates employment is not yet back to pre pandemic levels. This is due to the loss of foreign workers from our labour supply. The evidence suggests the labour market is tightening and wages pressure should lift.  This differs from recent RBA commentary that wages and inflation pressure will remain muted for some time.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Household Spending Intentions May 2021

Household Spending Intentions May 2021

June 15, 2021

The Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions series for May 2021 showed the generally positive consumer environment continued in the month, when comparing the spending categories relative to May last year.  Base effects continue to impact the data as the slow reopening of the economy began a year ago. In this podcast Kim Mundy, Senior International Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results with Home buying, Health & fitness, Education and Car buying moving higher compared to May 2020. Base effects saw Retail spending intentions retreat, while Entertainment and Travel intentions moved sideways. 

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Will central banks soon have an inflation problem?

Will central banks soon have an inflation problem?

June 4, 2021

Inflation and the prospects of rising inflation have been the hot topic of 2021. In this podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the arguments for an increase in inflation large enough to cause central banks to tighten monetary policy. Loose fiscal policy, immigration and tourism, accumulated household savings, rising commodity prices, supply chain disruptions, wages and inflation expectations are all discussed.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

The economic recovery continued in Q1 21

The economic recovery continued in Q1 21

June 3, 2021

The Q1 21 GDP figures were just released.  They showed that the economic recovery continued strongly over early 2021.  GDP is now about 0.8% above where it was tracking pre-COVID-19.  Strong commodity prices are also giving the economy a boost and nominal GDP rose by 3.5% in the quarter.  In the podcast Kristina Clifton and Belinda Allen, both Senior Economists discuss the GDP results. They also touch on the upcoming July RBA meeting.  This meeting will be an important one with the RBA set to announce their decision around which bond to target and whether QE will be extended. 

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Agriculture update; half time or full time

Agriculture update; half time or full time

May 27, 2021

In our regular quarterly podcast with Tobin Gorey, Ag Strategist topics such as supply constraints, rising farm prices in Australia and seasonal labour issues are all discussed. Tobin details how supply constrains have been building in recent seasons and when combined with rising demand is creating the ‘Turf War’ and rising prices. With recent residential property price rises, Tobin, with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist also discuss how farm prices are rising, but is varied depending on the type of land.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

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