CommBank Global Economic & Markets Update podcast
September Household Spending Intentions series

September Household Spending Intentions series

October 19, 2021

In this podcast Chief Economist, Stephen Halmarick discusses the September Household Spending Intentions series with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist. The overwhelming message is one of stability – after a number of months of significant volatility. Home buying, Retail, Travel, Health & fitness and Motor vehicle spending intentions all showed signs of stability and consolidation in September, after declines in prior months.  Entertainment and Education spending intentions continued to trend down.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Any reference to the term ‘CBA data’ means the proprietary data of the Bank. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Bank’s Privacy Policy. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Aussie housing CPI and education exports

Aussie housing CPI and education exports

October 15, 2021

In this podcast the Australian Economics team led by Gareth Aird deep dives into two different issues impacting the Australian economy. First, Kristina Clifton and Stephen Wu discuss the housing component of CPI (which is the largest) and how it is being impacted by various government grants but also rising material costs. Rents are also important and these are expected to lift. Belinda Allen then discusses education exports during the pandemic and what factors could shift the recovery of this important export sector as borders begin to open up.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Global economic outlook – Central banks eye the exit

Global economic outlook – Central banks eye the exit

October 12, 2021

In this podcast Head of International Economics, Joseph Capurso and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the changing composition of global economic growth. In 2022 growth of 4.4% is expected after a lift of 6.5% in 2021. However the US and China is expected to expand by less than earlier expected while the UK and the Eurozone are experiencing an acceleration in growth. Inflation is rising, and this has some central banks eyeing the exit of extraordinary easy monetary policy.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Nature related risks – the clock is ticking

Nature related risks – the clock is ticking

October 7, 2021

Nature related risks are growing in recognition and importance, and the rapid decline in biodiversity is a growing potential risk for businesses. In this podcast Carol Kong, Senior Associate, International Economics and Currency Strategy discusses with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist what the developments of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures and the post-2020 global biodiversity framework might mean for Australian businesses. 

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

More, and Better Food – The Income Dimension

More, and Better Food – The Income Dimension

October 5, 2021

In this podcast Belinda Allen, Senior Economist speaks with Agriculture Strategist, Tobin Gorey and they revisit the thematic of ‘More, and Better Food”. The focus in this episode is how income levels in particular economies have changed over the past forty years and where the opportunity lies going forward. This theory has been a mainstay of the opportunity around the agriculture space. The data suggests further growth in income in certain economies is likely and agriculture production will need to be scaled up to meet the demand going forward.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

How can ‘common prosperity’ influence the Chinese economy?

How can ‘common prosperity’ influence the Chinese economy?

October 1, 2021

The concept of ‘common prosperity’ has dominated the policy landscape in China recently. The key objective is to create a fairer and more equal ‘social welfare society’ and is a long term policy goal. Policy changes will be gradual but there will be macroeconomic implications. In this podcast Kevin Xie, Senior Asia Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the concept of common prosperity and how this will accelerate economic rebalancing from investment to consumption in China.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Inflation driven by fiscal expansion and money creation

Inflation driven by fiscal expansion and money creation

September 30, 2021

The inflation debate has been one consistent theme in 2021. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how the potent combination of Quantitative Easing and direct cash payments from government to households will boost future spending and lead to higher consumer inflation over the next few years.  We retain our call that the RBA will commence normalising the cash rate in May 2023.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

US wages, inflation and the FOMC

US wages, inflation and the FOMC

September 23, 2021

In our latest podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into wages, inflation and interest rates in the US. The Employment Cost Index and a very high quit rate suggests US wages pressures are rising. Stronger growth in wages is adding to an already strong consumer inflation pulse. Joseph draws implications for the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Household Spending Intentions – August 2021

Household Spending Intentions – August 2021

September 21, 2021

The Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions series for August 2021 continued the run of data showing the economic impact of the lockdowns currently in place in NSW and Victoria.  These lockdowns had a considerable impact on the HSI in August as it will over coming months till restrictions ease. Lockdowns are also significantly impacting labour market data, but incomes are holding up due to government benefit payments. Home buying, Travel, Entertainment and Education spending intentions were all down.  Retail, Health & fitness and Motor vehicle spending intentions were trending sideways.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Any reference to the term ‘CBA data’ means the proprietary data of the Bank. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Bank’s Privacy Policy. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Vantage Point – Tactics and Strategy

Vantage Point – Tactics and Strategy

September 13, 2021

In our latest podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist speaks with Belinda Allen about his latest Vantage Point piece titled Tactics and Strategy. Stephen runs through how policy around COVID has shifted with vaccinations now ramping up and how internally generated CBA data is tracking in August and early September. Belinda and Stephen also discuss themes in feedback from CBA corporate clients as well as the latest on the RBA, the US Federal Reserve, China’s outlook and the research focus on Environment, Social and Governance (ESG) factors.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

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