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Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s Global Economic & Markets Research team will cover off on the latest market and economic news and dive deep into the big issues impacting the Australian and global economy. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice.
Episodes
Wednesday Jan 18, 2023
Implications of China’s reopening
Wednesday Jan 18, 2023
Wednesday Jan 18, 2023
On our first podcast for 2023 Belinda Allen, Senior Economist talks to Carol Kong, Economist and Current Strategist about the reopening of China. Carol expects the reopening after close to three years of restrictions will bring forward the economic recovery, led by household consumption. However this will likely be in fits and starts due to chaotic preparation and a surge in covid cases. We expect labour shortages and intermittent supply chain issues, but these should be short lived.
------ DISCLAIMER ------
Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Tuesday Dec 13, 2022
Household Spending Intentions November 2022
Tuesday Dec 13, 2022
Tuesday Dec 13, 2022
The CommBank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) index rose by 1.9%/mth in original terms in November 2022, to 118.2. The increase was driven by a rise in spending on Transport (higher petrol prices), Retail (with consumers taking advantage of the sales) and Health & fitness. This was partly offset by falls in Travel, Education and Motor vehicles. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results in this latest podcast and the seasonal adjustment process undertaken to provide a better understanding of recent moves.
------ DISCLAIMER ------
Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Thursday Dec 01, 2022
Vantage Point – 2023 Outlook
Thursday Dec 01, 2022
Thursday Dec 01, 2022
In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the outlook for 2023 for both the global economy and the Australian economy. Stephen highlights that central banks have in 2022 focussed on ‘today’s problem’, ie inflation, but in 2023 will pivot to ‘tomorrow’s problem’, ie the looming economic slowdown. This pivot will impact on financial markets and could see central banks reverse course in late 2023 and into 2024.
------ DISCLAIMER ------
Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Thursday Dec 01, 2022
AgQ – Southern Exposure
Thursday Dec 01, 2022
Thursday Dec 01, 2022
In this podcast Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, speaks with Tobin Gorey, Agri-Strategist, about the latest AgQ, Southern Exposure (published 29/11). The podcast includes discussion about the impact of floods in Eastern Australia, how commodity prices might interact with currencies and why you should also keep an eye on the weather in South America.
------ DISCLAIMER ------
Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Tuesday Nov 08, 2022
Household Spending Intentions October 2022
Tuesday Nov 08, 2022
Tuesday Nov 08, 2022
The CommBank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) Index rose by +0.9%/mth in October 2022, to 116.0. The gains in October were impacted by higher prices in a number of categories. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results in this latest podcast and dive into the detail including the seasonal influences at play in the retail category. The most significant moves in the HSI index in October were for Household services (after a decline in this category last month) and Retail, with half the gain in spending on the month in food – primarily driven by higher prices. Gains were also seen in Entertainment and Transport. These gains were partly offset by falls in Home buying, Travel and Motor vehicles.
------ DISCLAIMER ------
Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Any reference to the term ‘CBA data’ means the proprietary data of the Bank. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Bank’s Privacy Policy. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Wednesday Oct 26, 2022
Federal Budget 2022/23 – Resetting for an uncertain future
Wednesday Oct 26, 2022
Wednesday Oct 26, 2022
The second 2022/23 Federal Budget was handed down on 25 October 2022. The new Labor Government wanted to ensure its fiscal settings were in line with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s aim of controlling inflation. In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the Budget numbers, the key policy announcements and the economic projections. In short with the fiscal policy impulse all but unchanged over the year, this should help monetary policy get on top of the inflation surge running through the economy. However the widening of the deficit in the out years could imply the need for future fiscal constraint.
------ DISCLAIMER ------
Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Thursday Oct 13, 2022
Global economy heads for recession
Thursday Oct 13, 2022
Thursday Oct 13, 2022
We have cut our forecast for global economic growth to only 1.6% in 2023, below the International Monetary Fund definition of a global recession of 2%. In this podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the drivers behind this view, the outlook for major central banks and the risk of stagflation. The outlook for China, the US, Japan, Canada, the UK and the Eurozone are also unpacked.
------ DISCLAIMER ------
Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Tuesday Oct 11, 2022
Household Spending Intentions September 2022
Tuesday Oct 11, 2022
Tuesday Oct 11, 2022
For September 2022 the CommBank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) Index declined by 0.5%/mth. The fall in September was the first monthly decline since April this year and is clearly beginning to show the effects on the household sector of the RBA’s aggressive interest rate hiking cycle – with further impact expected in the months ahead. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results in the latest podcast and delve into the reasons why Health & Fitness and Home Buying fell while Motor Vehicle, Entertainment and Travel rose.
------ DISCLAIMER ------
Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Any reference to the term ‘CBA data’ means the proprietary data of the Bank. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Bank’s Privacy Policy. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Thursday Sep 29, 2022
A looming US recession
Thursday Sep 29, 2022
Thursday Sep 29, 2022
Extremely high inflation combined with the FOMC’s strong commitment to restore price stability suggest it will likely induce a recession. In this podcast Carol Kong, International Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss if the US is already in recession and the indicators to watch going forward. Importantly the US FOMC has a poor track record in managing a soft landing so a recession is a likely outcome.
------ DISCLAIMER ------
Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.”
Tuesday Sep 13, 2022
Household Spending Intentions August 2022
Tuesday Sep 13, 2022
Tuesday Sep 13, 2022
In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the latest CommBank Household Spending Intentions results. The HSI Index lifted by 0.8% in August and was 15.1% higher on the year. The gains however were narrowly based in Motor vehicles, Home buying and Health & fitness. While discretionary interest rate sensitive sectors including Travel, Retail and Entertainment fell and we expect given the monetary policy tightening that has already been undertaken, with more to come, further soften in spending to occur.
------ DISCLAIMER ------
Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Any reference to the term ‘CBA data’ means the proprietary data of the Bank. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data, it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Bank’s Privacy Policy. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.