CommBank Global Economic & Markets Update podcast

The end of LIBOR

In a step away from the economy, this podcast delves into what the end of LIBOR means for financial markets. Martin Whetton, Head of Fixed Income & Currency Strategy, discusses with Belinda Allen Senior Economist what LIBOR is and why it is ending. For any issuers or borrowers in debt markets this is an important topic to be aware of and Martin discusses what LIBOR will be replaced with, when and what the call to action is.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

 

February Household Spending Intentions and RBA recap

The Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions series for February 2021 showed mixed results across the seven spending categories, but overall continued to point to ongoing improvement in household spending in the Australian economy. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the major results with a focus on Home Buying, Health & fitness, Entertainment and Education spending intentions. They also discuss how upcoming base effects will impact the readings going forward. Stephen also shares his latest thinking on the RBA post Governor Lowe’s most recent speech.

 

“------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

The end of JobKeeper and outlook for the States & Territories

We cover two different issues in our latest podcast between Belinda Allen and Nic Guesnon from the Australian Economics team. Firstly the impact of the end of JobKeeper is discussed and how this will impact the labour market. We expect around 110k jobs could be lost by the end of the wage subsidy and a number of key industries are likely to wear the brunt. Secondly we discuss the performance of the various state and territories in 2020, what is driving the divergence and what we expect in 2021.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Central bank outlook

Recent financial market activity, particularly the bond market would suggest that lifts in short term rates are coming down the pipeline by central banks. In this podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss what central bankers are focussed on when looking at tightening monetary policy. A focus on actual inflation rather than expected inflation has been a recent change in thinking. The interplay of fiscal policy and economic data is also discussed as well as the outlook for the major central banks.

 

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

 

Australian GDP and RBA recap

In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist unpack both the Q4 20 GDP result as well as the RBA March Board meeting.  The Australian economy has had a V-shaped economic recovery and we remain optimistic on the outlook for 2021. The RBA is expected to continue with its very easy monetary policy stance, albeit the bond market is pricing in the chance of some future monetary policy tightening due to an improving economy and prospects for higher inflation.  Rapidly rising home prices are also feeding into market speculation on what the RBA does over the period ahead.  We expect the RBA to exit yield curve control later this year.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Global economy primed to spring back?

In this podcast Kim Mundy, Senior Economist - International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the upgraded forecasts for global economic growth in 2021 and 2022. There are three main reasons for the improved outlook: vaccinated populations, large savings buffers and fiscal stimulus. The path of the virus does remain front and centre. Kim also provides the growth outlook for the US, China, Eurozone, UK and Japan.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

How ‘circular’ is Australia’s economy?

In this podcast with Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist extend on our research on the circular economy by analysing how circular the Australian economy is. We estimate that due to Australia’s relatively high extraction of resources and materials, Australia is at a higher risk from disruption caused by a transition to a circular economy. This could have market consequences in the future.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Agriculture update – welcome to the juggle

In our quarterly update with Tobin Gorey, Ag Strategist we discuss the improving macroeconomic environment and the emerging topic of interest, inflation. Tobin discusses if there are any signs of inflation in the agriculture space and what that might mean. Tobin and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist also provide an update on the turf war and if we are likely to see any developments in 2021. Tobin also discusses the impact of Aussie – China trade tensions, the wheat crop in Australia and what the outlook is for beef and sheep in Australia.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Green is the new black in a post-COVID world

Continuing with our recent focus on sustainable economic growth, this podcast with Carol Kong from our International Economics & Currency Strategy team and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist delves into recent fiscal stimulus plans and how “green” these are. While carbon emissions did drop during 2020 and some recovery plans have been greener than others, more can be done and there are benefits both in an economic sense as well as for the climate.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Household Spending Intentions – January 2021

The Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions series for January 2021 showed relatively widespread improvement in spending intentions at the start of the year – despite some Covid-19 related lockdowns in various parts of the country. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results for January which show Home Buying, Travel, Health & fitness, Entertainment and Education spending intentions were all up on the month.  Retail and Motor vehicle spending intentions were flat on the month. We also provide our latest thoughts on the state of the economic recovery and where the risks lie.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this report, you are advised to read the full Global Markets Research disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This report provides general market-related information, and is not intended to be an investment research report. The information contained in this report is approved and distributed by Global Markets Research, a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available Google Trends™ data. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As the statistics take into account only the Bank’s data it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used, or represented, in this report is anonymised and aggregated before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this presentation is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.