CommBank Global Economic & Markets Update podcast

FX Weekly - US election will drive currency markets this week

In this week’s episode we discuss the key drivers of the Australian dollar this week including the US election,  RBA and Federal Reserve interest rate announcements, and the expected Chinese economic stimulus announcement.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

 

Inflation not falling quickly enough for a rate cut this year

All eyes were on the Q3 24 CPI data last week. While inflation continues to moderate, the disinflation process is not occurring quickly enough to warrant a rate cut by year end. As a result, we have shifted our base case and now expect the first interest rate cut to arrive in February next year. In this week’s podcast, Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird, Senior Economist, Stephen Wu and Economist, Harry Ottley discuss the inflation data in detail and outline why we pushed back our expectations for the cutting cycle. They also preview this week’s RBA Board meeting and cover off the other data released last week, with a focus on consumer spending.   

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

 

FX Weekly – Key economic data in Australia and the US to drive currencies, more volatility ahead for the Japanese yen

In this episode, Carol Kong and Kristina Clifton talk through the key economic data in Australia and the US that can drive currencies this week.  They also discuss their expectations for the Japanese yen given the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting and political uncertainty. 

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

 

Economics Weekly: All eyes on CPI and spend data

After a quiet weekly locally the data flow ramps up with the release of the important September quarter inflation figures. Senior Economists Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu deep dive in the expectations for the Q3 24 CPI and what it means for the RBA. Retail trade data and the ABS HSI measure is released for September and can partially settle the debate about the consumer response to the income tax cuts. A full read though will have to wait to the Q3 24 National Accounts.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

 

FX Weekly - US election getting closer, Bank of Canada could deliver a large cut this week

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences impacting currency markets including the upcoming US election, interest rate differentials which have moved in favour of the Australian dollar, and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision this week.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

 

Economics Weekly – Strong employment growth reduces odds of near-term rate cut

The strength of the labour market continues to surprise. In this week’s podcast, Economist Harry Ottley and Senior Economist, Belinda Allen discuss the recent strength in the Australian labour market and outline the implications for the RBA. They also talk through some of the thematic research the Aussie economics team published last week on inflation, rents and population.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

 

Global Economics - Interest rate cuts to improve global economic outlook in 2025

The global interest rate cut cycle has started.  And there are many more interest rate cuts ahead across most major economies.  CBA’s view is that the interest rate cuts will improve global economic outlook in 2025.  In the latest podcast, Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics, and John Oh, Sustainable Economist sit down to discuss CBA’s latest view and breakdown developments across the major economies. 

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

 

CommBank Household Spending Insights September 2024

The CommBank HSI fell by 0.7% in September as consumers pulled back spending after the Father’s Day boosted splurge in August. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Harry Ottley, Economist discuss the all the key takeaways from the September HSI in today’s podcast.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. The data used in the ‘Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions’ series is a combination of the CBA Data and publically available ABS, CoreLogic and RBA data. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Bank’s Privacy Policy. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. The Bank makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

 

FX Weekly - Chinese stimulus disappoints markets

In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including Chinese fiscal stimulus, Australian labour market data, the NZ CPI and the ECB’s interest rate announcement. 

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

 

Economics Weekly – Less hawkish RBA minutes, labour market in focus

In this weeks podcast, Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird and Economist Harry Ottley talk through the RBA’s less hawkish communication from last week and touch on the private sector surveys that were released. They then move on to preview this week, with the September labour force survey in focus.

 

------ DISCLAIMER ------

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice. This podcast provides general market-related information, and is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. The information contained in this podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). The information is solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Where ‘CBA data’ is cited, this refers to the Bank proprietary data that is sourced from the Bank’s internal systems and may include, but not be limited to, home loan data, credit card transaction data, merchant facility transaction data and applications for credit. As analysis is based on CBA customer transactions,  it may not reflect all trends in the market. All customer data used or represented in this podcast is anonymised before analysis and is used, and disclosed, in accordance with the Group’s Privacy Policy Statement. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held based on the information available at the time of its compilation but no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.